• On 12 October 2018 rating agency Fitch announced a decision about keeping Poland's credit rating unchanged at the level of A-/F2 for long and short term liabilities, respectively, in foreign currency and A-/F1 for long and short term liabilities, respectively, in local currency.
• Rating's outlook remained at a stable level.

Fitch rating agency in its press release justifying the decision indicates strong macro fundamentals and well diversified economy, underpinned by responsible economic policy and strong banking sector. According to the agency GDP growth in the years 2018 and 2019 will amount to 4.8% and 3.6%, respectively (previously 4.4% and 3.4%). General government deficit in the years 2018 – 2020 is projected to amount to 1.8%, 2.0% and 2.2%, respectively. General government's debt to GDP ratio in the years 2018 – 2020 will remain at the average level of 50%.

Rating prospects

According to the agency, Poland's rating could be raised as a result of further sustained reduction in net external debt to GDP towards countries with ‘A' category or fiscal consolidation that will lead to a sustained decline in public debt to GDP. Additionally, rating could be higher as a result of GDP growth supporting faster income convergence towards countries with ‘A' category. On the other hand, rating could be lowered in case of any sights of weakening relevance of 3% deficit limit, failure to stabilise debt to GDP ratio in the medium term or weaker macro-economic policy framework, potentially resulting in lower GDP growth. Rating could be also lower if governance standards will deteriorate or the business climate will have an adverse impact on the economy.